This is going to be our "don't overthink it" play of the week, which has gone 6-1 since we started doing it earlier this season. There are a couple of reasons for this, and while they may be on the square side, occasionally the squares do win a few.
PHI is 25th in pass DVOA allowed, look for a big game from Mike Evans who will be up against Steven Nelson on that left side of the ball. Tom should have PLENTY of time to throw the ball behind the number one offensive line in the league when it comes to adjusted sack rate allowed.
Tampa is 7-1 ATS this season when playing as a home favorite, and PHI has not been impressive against good teams this season. While their run game is the core of their offense, Tampa is 5th in adjusted line yards allowed per game and first in 'Stuffed' %, so they should be well prepared for any running barrage, forcing the ball into Jalen Hurts' hand for the majority of the game.
The major differing factor in this game is experience. Tom Brady is the most experienced playoff QB of all time and the vast majority of the team was there last season when they took home the Lombardi trophy, they've been in this position before. While that is true for a few members of the Eagles defense, it is nowhere near the same level. Along with Nick Sirianni, neither of the main two coordinators have ever coached a playoff game before in their position, leaving this coaching staff to be overwhelmed by the experienced Bucs staff.
The Eagles rank 32nd in completion % allowed, are second to last in sack % and Tampa should be in the lead from early on, forcing the Eagles to play more of a passing-centric game, something they are not comfortable with and likely will resist turning to until they are in a dire situation and throw with desperation. Don't overthink this one.