After a long wait, the NFL finally returns to regular season play tomorrow evening, and I, like millions of others across the country, will be placing heavily researched wagers week in and week out with all of you. But before the season starts, in the spirit of transparency (and so I can hopefully say I was right at the end of the year) I wanted to share my futures for the year that I have placed so far. This list will be updated throughout the regular season, as futures do not necessarily have to all be placed before the first game is played, but here is where value has been found so far.
Carolina Panthers OVER 5.5 wins -118 2 units, BetRivers Sportsbook
The Panthers fit my criteria for "surprise team of the year" and are, in fact, the only team that fits that criteria. I love Bryce Young coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder after hearing dirt being thrown on his name all last season and all off-season while people drool over the 2nd pick in his draft class, his good friend CJ Stroud. They have made significant upgrades on the offensive line (Robert Hunt & Austin Corbett) as well as the secondary (Jordan Fuller & Troy Hill) and Dave Canales has the potential to do wonders to that offense that has added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. The Panthers have the 11th easiest strength of schedule this season and while the division has gotten better because of the rapid improvement of the Falcons roster, it is still a weaker division than most of what the NFL has to offer. This is a bet that everyone has rolled their eyes at so far, and most of the time that is a good sign. They have several winnable games on the schedule, we only need six.
2. Cowboys Under 10.5 wins -194 1 unit, Fanduel Sportsbook
3. Cowboys Under 9.5 wins +118 1 unit, Fanduel Sportsbook
4. Cowboys to MISS the playoffs +164 1 unit, Fanduel Sportsbook
Dallas is an interesting case because it is a question of whether you think star power can carry a team through several gaping weaknesses. Offensively, besides Ceedee Lamb, the only other targets in the WR room are Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert. On the offensive line, Tyler Guyton is an unproven rookie at the LT spot and Brock Hoffman is a weak point at center. Finally, their RB room is old and weak with Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Rico Dowdle. Yes, Ceedee Lamb and Dak Prescott are there and Jake Ferguson is a good tight end, but this offense is a shell of what it once was, and Mike McCarthy is doing the play-calling which is a nightmare waiting to happen when it comes to the clutch moments. Defensively is where I think this team struggles big time. Mazi Smith and Osa Odighizuwa are a weak duo at DT even if you believe in Smith as an every-down lineman. Eric Kendricks' best years are behind him at linebacker and Damone Clark is unproven at the other LB spot. With Daron Bland out for 6-8 weeks, the corner room is incredibly shallow right now and is the main concern. Trevon Diggs and Calen Carson are not an inspiring pair, especially in a division with duos like AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. The safeties are alright with Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker, but Hooker regressed last year and Wilson is getting older as well. This has steamed down from 10.5 but I like both numbers. Of their 17 games, I think they could feasibly lose 9 of them. Even if it is 8, we still clear this line at 9.5.
5. Jaguars to MISS the playoffs -142 1 unit, Fanduel Sportsbook
Firstly, from a numerical perspective, there are too many mouths to feed in the AFC and not enough playoff spots to go around. There are seven teams that have higher win total projections than the Jaguars, and while one can assume that not all seven will clear those win total projections, there are four other teams with an equal number to them at 8.5. From a roster construction standpoint, Jacksonville legitimately may have a bottom 8 defense in the NFL. Besides Arik Armstead, who may be approaching the end of his prime and beginning the twilight of his career, the defensive line does not have many consistent pieces, nor is there a ton of depth with NFL experience. Their linebackers are solid but not guys that can hold a defense together, and then in the secondary there is absolutely no depth. Ronald Darby will be on an island by himself and is another guy who the Jaguars may have snagged right after he reached the peak of his career, and Andre Cisco can only cover half the field, while Antonio Williams tries to cover the other half. I think teams are going to go after this defense, especially since they are in a division with the Colts who have a strong offense and a borderline offensive guru as their head coach, and the Texans, who have a guru of their own at offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik and a powerhouse offensive unit led by CJ Stroud, Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. If Jacksonville struggles in their divisional games, they won't have much more fun out of the division. I like some of the players on this team, but they miss the playoffs this year.
6. Garrett Wilson to lead the league in receiving yards +2000 0.5 units, BetRivers Sportsbook
Last season Garrett Wilson was 22nd in the NFL in receiving yards. While it may seem crazy to jump from that number to 1st in the NFL, you have to remember that Zach Wilson was throwing to him, he was still 4th in the NFL in targets last season, he was just only able to catch 95 of them. I know that this is just targets, and not yards/target, but it makes sense that Aaron Rodgers, known for his touch on the deep pass, would increase the yards/target for Wilson. While the Jets did add Mike Williams to the roster thus crowding the WR room, his injury history has to be taken into account, especially when he’ll be playing half of his games at MetLife Stadium, where the turf is known for causing non-contact knee injuries. The rest of the receiving room consists of special teams specialist Xavier Gipson in the slot and what is remaining of Allen Lazard, although his career could be resurrected by his former QB now that he has returned. I think Wilson should be listed around where Ja’Marr Chase is at +1000, not at +2000 where he currently stands, this is a value play.
7. Eagles to win the NFC East -125 1 unit, Draftkings Sportsbook
This one is more simple than the rest. If I believe in my analysis of the Dallas Cowboys falling below 9 wins this season, and the Eagles have a projected win total of 10.5 (juiced to the over) that gives quite a bit of leeway for Philadelphia to win the division even if they fall short of expectations. While it would be a fun story for either the Giants or the Commanders to fight for the NFC East crown, that just is not a realistic possibility at this point with their current rosters, and this bet is +EV as well. This price is -140 or worse at most other competing sportsbooks including Fanduel, BetRivers, Caesars, BetMGM, and Fanatics, so at -125 with the prior research on the Cowboys and the depth of the Eagles roster as well as the addition of Saquon Barkley, the Eagles to win the NFC East is a good bet to take.
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