KC v PHI Advantages
KC Coaching advantage
QB Advantage
Experience Advantage
Strength of Schedule Advantage
TE Advantage vs LB group
PHI
Run game advantage
DB Advantage
OL and DL Advantage
WR Group Advantage
Scheme Matchup
PHI defense: PHI has exceptional DB depth and a top pass rush in the league. Because of these things, they have the ability to rush 4 and drop back the remaining 7 players on the field into a quarters coverage and still produce a pass rush. For What it is worth, Mahomes is great against zone and is averaging 7.9 yards/attempt against cover 4. Kelce is targeted on 29% of throws against cover 4. Look for a lot of check downs from Mahomes to RBs on passing downs. In Cover 4, if the DL gets pressure, he’ll take what they give him which is the RBs in the flats. This has proven to be true as RBs have a 20+% target share when Mahomes faces cover 4.
This will also eat up a lot of clock. If I were Andy Reid that is exactly what I want to do, keep the ball out of PHI’s hands for as long as possible.
KC defense: KC runs slightly more man than PHI does, but still under 40% of defensive plays. They run over 2 23% of the time when they are in zone and it seems to be their best coverage. Hurts averages 9.3 yards/attempt against cover 2 but has not faced it much and hasn’t thrown a TD against it.
Matchup Advantages/Disadvantages
AJ Brown vs Trent McDuffie: The Chiefs like to blitz heavily on important downs which will likely leave McDuffie on an island with AJ Brown who is one of the best receivers in the NFL when it comes to his release against press coverage. If Hurts has time to throw the ball, there is only so much time that McDuffie will be able to stay with Brown in single coverage.
Patrick Mahomes vs PHI LB core in coverage: The Eagles LB core is possibly the only (slightly) weak spot on this team and they do love to play zone, Travis Kelce is a zone-buster and the safety option for Mahomes, I expect him to get a lot of touches underneath breaking down the zone coverage from these LBs in the middle.
Other Factors
- Jalen Hurts struggles under pressure in the few circumstances where he is, in fact under pressure.
- I trust this Chiefs team that has been here before to be able to handle adversity and make adjustments more than I trust the Eagles staff to.
KC played the 9th best strength of schedule, PHI’s was 29th. They then played the Giants and QB-less 49ers to get here. I feel like people are underestimating the absolute punch in the face that Patrick Mahomes can be, even if he is not 100%. I am not doubting this Eagles team. I know they are amazing, that’s why I have a future on them at 20-1, but that doesn’t mean I automatically think they will win. The Chiefs went 14-3, the Colts loss at the beginning of the season I will grant you was bad, but that was week 3 and it would be foolish to consider that now. Looking at the last two teams that beat them, the Bills and the Bengals, who both made it further than the Cowboys and Vikings, the best opponents the Eagles played, both of whom would be at least 3-point underdogs to the Bills or Bengals on a neutral field. The Chiefs lost both of those games by 1 possession, and what’s more, the Chiefs were a bad schematic matchup against both! Now, this matchup I don’t see as much as a disadvantage.
PICK: Chiefs +105 4u at Caesars Sportsbook
Props
Jerick McKinnon OVER 19.5 receiving yards -120 1u at Betmgm: Eagles love to rush 4 and sit in cover 4 quarters since they know they can get a good pass rush off regardless. When Mahomes faces cover 4 his RBs have a target share over 20%. McKinnon is a speedy player who should have room to work with in the flats against cover 4 and some LBs that aren’t particularly quick to the ball.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling OVER 2.5 receptions -110 0.75u @fanduel: He was targeted 8 times in the conference championship game. In weeks 17 and 18 he was targeted 7 and 6 times. He is someone who Mahomes definitely trusts, and WR options are slim with the faith not really being there in Juju Smith Schuster. Looking at the Eagles, when they’ve allowed success to WRs it usually has not been to the #1 guy. Curtis Samuel 9 receptions 76 yards etc. I like Valdez-Scantling to play a role in this game and I like the number of 2.5 receptions, I think it is definitely feasible.
Other props I like:
Over 2.5 players to throw a pass
PHI Over 2.5 sacks.
As the day continues, we will keep posting more props picks on our Twitter thread on this game @sourcepodcast11 so check us out over there to find more of our plays and analysis! Hopefully, we have a phenomenal game coming up.
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